The first proper opinion poll of the Assembly election campaign makes gloomy if predictable reading for the Labour Party in Wales.
The ITV Wales commissioned survey predicts Rhodri Morgan's team shrinking from 29 to 25 seats in the new Assembly.
Voters appear to be ready to deliver a bloody nose to Labour and virtually guarantee a coalition deal to run Wales on May 4.
I can't have been alone in thinking Mr Morgan's radio interview on BBC Radio Wales on Thursday was a tad pessimistic when he said: "I will know if we have lost badly and I will retire and leave the stage.
“So if people want me out they can get me out by voting against Labour.”
He was still aiming for a majority in the Assembly and there was no “plan B” if he failed.
The biggest winners, according to the ITV Wales poll, would be the Conservatives, surging ahead of Plaid Cymru from 11 to 14 seats to become the official opposition party.
Plaid would remain on 12 seats, while the Liberal Democrats improve by one seat to seven, with two Independents elected.
It suggests that Plaid could take the new Aberconwy seat, while Labour also lose out in Clwyd West to the Tories.
The poll asked electors about their intention to vote on May 3, and 45% claimed that they were 'certain' to turn out, up from 38% in 2003.
With four weeks to go till polling day, there is time for those opinions to change.
But the best news so far for Mr Morgan may be the maths that says 25 + 7 = 32.
