Plaid Cymru Ieuan Wyn Jones: “This poll reflects the change that we’ve seen on the doorstep over the past few weeks.”
Conservatives Nick Bourne: “This poll does not reflect the evidence we are getting on the doorstep.”
Lib Dems Mike German: “It is clear that our vote is moving ahead and producing more seats for the Welsh Liberal Democrats.”
Labour: “This poll shows that the Labour vote is holding up.”
Only the results of the latest ITV Wales Assembly election opinion poll can do this.
For full poll details click below.
Plaid Cymru are gaining ground in the election chase according to the latest opinion poll findings for ITV Wales.
The NOP poll, the second of the Assembly election campaign, showed a leap by Plaid into second place since the first poll was published on April 5.
Conservative support slumped, partly due to increased backing for UKIP, who are registering 5% on the regional list vote.
ITV Wales’ elections expert Dr Denis Balsom reckons that the new Assembly could be made up of Labour 25 AMs (-4), Plaid Cymru 15 (+3), Conservative 10 (-1), Lib Dems 8 (+2) and two Independent AMs, John Marek (Wrexham) and Trish Law (Blaenau Gwent).
Cue coalition talks on May 4.
ITV Wales’ second poll, was a recall of those who had taken part in the first poll.
The voting intentions of those certain to vote were:
Constituency Vote
Party 2nd Poll 1st Poll 2003 result
Labour 32% 36% 40%
Plaid Cymru 26% 20% 21%
Conservative 19% 23% 20%
Liberal Democrat 15% 15% 14%
Others 8% 6% 5%
Regional Vote
Party 2nd Poll 1st Poll 2003 result
Labour 34% 35% 37%
Plaid Cymru 24% 20% 20%
Conservative 18% 24% 19%
Liberal Democrat 15% 15% 13%
Others 9% 5% 12%
The poll shows a constituency vote swing to Plaid Cymru, up 5% from their 2003 result, and a decline in support for Labour, down 8%, with a week until polling day.
Dr Balsom said: “The long campaign was always likely to have an impact on support for the parties.
“It seems that Labour in Wales has not successfully distanced itself from the current unpopularity of Tony Blair’s Government.
“Conversely, the Conservatives have to have slipped back from their generally positive showing in the first ITV Wales poll.
“The campaign seems to have given a lift to Plaid Cymru’s support and though the Liberal Democrats’ support appears largely static, they could still gain seats as a result of the changing fortunes of the other parties.”
He added: “The ITV Wales poll set out to measure the changes in party support during the campaign.
“While there has been considerable movement, the number of undecided voters remains important (18%) and shifts in support between the parties will continue up until polling day.
“The combination of the constituency vote and the regional vote means that quite small changes in votes can have a significant effect on the balance of seats in the Senedd.”
* NOP originally interviewed a representative quota sample of 1500 adults, by telephone, across Wales between March 23rd and April 2nd 2007. 750 were re-interviewed between April 19th and 23
